Date of Award
Dr. Hal Bass
Dr. Doug Reed
Dr. Jeff Pounders
Since the 1970's, much research has been done in an attempt to determine variables that cause decline of the president's popularity. Although there are different studies that give various reasons for the decline of the president's popularity, all agree that there is a trend of decline over the president's term. To represent the decline, James Stimson suggested a parabola model, whereas John Mueller suggested a linear-regression model. This paper attempts to show that a linear-regression model is more effective in explaining decline of the presidents from Truman to Johnson, than from Nixon to Bush. The findings show that a linear model does somewhat represent the era of Truman to Johnson better than the era of Nixon to Bush.
Gosser, April, "Presidential Popularity and the Linear Model" (1994). Honors Theses. 107.